EURUSD – recovery faces headwinds from 10DMA / fading ECB hike prospects

Recovery leg from 1.1324 (2026 low, posted last week) started to lose traction, as better than expected inflation numbers from some EU member countries (Germany, France, Italy) cooled expectations for ECB rate hike.

Markets wait for the EU June CPI data (due tomorrow), as well this week’s release of US labor sector report for June.

Renewed attempt through falling 10DMA (1.1419) may open way for further recovery (on clear break higher) though upticks are likely to be limited, as daily studies are predominantly negative.

Significant barriers at 1.1500 zone (psychological / 20DMA / former higher base) should cap extended upticks to keep larger bears in play.

Conversely, sustained break above 1.1500 pivot would sideline bears and allow for stronger recovery.

Res: 1.1473; 1.1500; 1.1540; 1.1600
Sup: 1.1382; 1.1354; 1.1324; 1.1290