EURUSD falls to 17-month low

Bears accelerated on Thursday, extending larger downtrend to the lowest since late May 2025, pressured by a cocktail of factors, such as negative impact from rising oil prices on inflation and already weakened bloc’s economy, political uncertainty and rising dollar.

EURUSD broke below 1.1300 handle (for the first time in 17 months), to hit 1.1265 low (261.8% Fibo expansion of extended third wave of five wave cycle from 1.1711, Aug 21 peak), remaining on track for the third consecutive weekly loss.

Firmly bearish daily studies contribute to negative near-term outlook, although overstretched 14-d momentum and oversold RSI suggest that bears may face increased headwinds.

Potential pause in a downtrend is likely to result in consolidation / limited correction in current increasingly negative fundamentals, with former low at 1.1324 (Jun 24) marking solid resistance, followed by descending 10DMA (1.1387) which should cap upticks and provide better levels to join bearish market for attacks at 1.1200 (round figure) and 1.1130 (50% retracement of 1.0177/1.2082 rally).

Res: 1.1324; 1.1355; 1.1387; 1.1411
Sup: 1.1265; 1.1200; 1.1130; 1.1100