WTI Oil – recovery extends into third day but risk of stall exists

WTI oil price extends recovery from new multi-week low ($71.40) into third consecutive day.

Profit-taking after last week’s 8.1% drop was contained by 200WMA, lifted the price along with lower than expected increase in US crude inventories (API report) and cut in forecast for US oil production growth which cooled concerns about potential oversupply.

Recovery penetrated thick daily cloud, (base of the cloud lays at $73.37) but faced increased headwinds at pivotal barriers at $74.27 (daily Kijun-sen) and generating initial signal of potential recovery stall.

The notion is supported by weakening bullish momentum and daily MA’s in predominantly bearish configuration, which keeps in play risk of very limited correction before larger bears regain full control for renewed probe through cracked $72.12 Fibo support, loss of which to open way for further retracement of $67.70/$79.27 uptrend.

Conversely, firm break of $74.27 pivot to firm near-term structure for attack at upper pivot at $75.34 (50% retracement of $79.27/$71.40 / daily Tenkan-sen).

Res: 74.27; 75.34; 76.92; 78.07
Sup: 73.37; 72.37; 71.40; 70.61