EURUSD – bears take a breather after cracking important 1.1500 support zone

The Euro bounced from new multi-month low (1.1410) on Monday as traders collect profits from strong fall in past two weeks (the pair was down 3%).

Slight optimism over the Middle East crisis contributed to technical signals on oversold daily studies, which paused broader downtrend.

Violation of significant supports at 1.1500 zone (former base / psychological / top of ascending weekly Ichimoku cloud) generated negative signal (Friday’s close well below 1.1500 zone).

This warns of continuation of downtrend from 1.2082 (2026 high) after consolidation / limited correction.

Markets await policy decisions of many major central banks this week, with the ECB and Fed being on the list and both expected to keep rates unchanged this time.

The dollar is likely to benefit from Fed/ ECB rate divergence, as well as being top safe-haven demand lately that supports scenario of EURUSD bearish continuation after a pause.

Broken 1.1500 barrier so far limits bounce with stronger upticks to face barriers at 1.1575 (former low of Jan 19 / falling 10DMA) which should ideally cap and offer better opportunities to re-enter bearish market for acceleration towards 1.1354 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0177/1.2082.

Only break above 1.1670 (200DMA / upper boundary of larger bear channel) would sideline bears.

Res: 1.1500; 1.1575; 1.1633; 1.1670
Sup: 1.1410; 1.1391; 1.1354; 1.1300