USD Index – bears take a breather above new multi-week low

The dollar edged higher on Thursday as traders booked profits from the recent fall, which accelerated in past three sessions and hit the lowest since late February.

Oversold conditions on daily chart prompted a partial profit-taking, which would likely mark a brief pause in a larger downtrend, as growing optimism about potential peace solutions in the Middle East continues to fade safe-haven demand.

Markets also take a break, awaiting more news, following recent optimistic signals, although remain cautious, as current ceasefire and negotiating process is still fragile.

Significant barriers at $98.30 zone (daily cloud top / converged 100/200DMAs) should ideally cap, with extended upticks to remain under $98.70 (Fibo 38.2% of $100.48/$97.59 / falling 10DMA) to keep bears in play for fresh push lower and attack at key support, provided by daily cloud base ($97.51), loss of which to strengthen bearish structure.

Daily studies remain bearish (strong negative momentum / daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen diverge after formation of bear-cross) that supports scenario of limited upticks providing better levels to re-enter market ahead of fresh push lower.

However, geopolitics are likely to remain dollar’s key driver currently, with news from negotiations to define greenback’s near-term direction.

Res: 98.30; 98.52; 98.70; 97.95
Sup: 97.50; 97.31; 97.00; 96.56