Dollar eases on signals of likely peak in US interest rates

The dollar index started trading with gap-lower and edged lower in early Thursday, deflated by dovish Fed.

The US central bank stayed on hold in its November’s policy meeting, in line with expectations, adding to growing potentials that US rates could have peaked,.

Decreasing bets for another hikes in December and January 2024 contribute to such scenario, although Fed Chief Powell left the door open for possible further hikes, but future decisions will depend on incoming data, as high rates caused a mixed impact on the economy.

Data released on Tuesday showed sharp contraction in manufacturing sector in October, but other reports signaled that labor sector is still resilient, with markets awaiting key NFP report on Friday, to get clearer picture about sector’s overall condition.

Technical structure on daily chart is weakening, as 14-d momentum broke into negative territory and Wednesday’s daily candle with small body and long upper shadow adds to downside pressure, along with gap-lower opening.

Fresh weakness pushed the price action to the mid-point of larger range (105.14/106.49), with overall mode  expected to remain sideways while the price moves within the range and clear break of either boundary to signal fresh direction.

Initial support lays at 105.70 (Monday’s low), guarding pivots at 105.14/05 (range floor / top of rising daily Ichimoku cloud).

Pivotal resistances lay at 107 zone (range tops / 50% retracement of 114.72/99.20 / psychological) and firm break higher to signal continuation of larger uptrend.

Res: 106.31; 106.76; 107.03; 107.88
Sup: 105.70; 105.14; 105.05; 104.32