AUDUSD – recovery from 0.7640 base struggles under 200SMA as thick daily cloud weighs

The Aussie dollar ticked higher on Tuesday, but lacking strength to retest pivots at 0.7811/13 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7916/0.7642 / 200SMA) which were tested on Friday’s short-lived spike to 0.7810.
Today’s action was capped by 100SMA (0.7789) which continues to limit upside attempts for over three weeks.
Rising momentum and bullish setup of 10/20/30SMA’s support recovery from 0.7640 base, but limited upside action could be expected while 200SMA caps as widening daily cloud (spanned between 0.7827 and 0.7923) continues to weigh.
Also, weekly cloud top lies at 0.7827 and reinforces barrier.
Bullish scenario requires break and close above the latter to signal extension of recovery leg from 0.7640 base.
Conversely, initial negative signal could be expected on violation of higher base at 0.7740 zone, reinforced by 30SMA and underpinned by rising 10SMA.
Sustained break below these supports would signal recovery stall and shift near-term focus lower.

Res: 0.7789; 0.7813; 0.7827; 0.7851
Sup: 0.7760; 0.7740; 0.7715; 0.7693