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China’s exports rose above expectations but persisting deflation warns

China’s exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year in December, surpassing expectations and showing an improvement from the 0.5% increase in November.

Imports also increased by 0.2% year-on-year in December, reversing a 0.6% drop from the previous month, although they missed forecasts for a 0.3% increase.

The improved Chinese export data aligns with positive signs from other economies like South Korea, Germany, and Taiwan, suggesting a potential global trade recovery.

Higher interest rates in the United States and Europe in 2023 had previously impacted demand, but expectations of interest rate cuts in these regions in 2024 are seen as factors that could improve demand for imported goods.

Despite positive trade data, China’s economy faces challenges, including a protracted property crisis, cautious consumers, and geopolitical uncertainties.

The ongoing property sector issues, weak domestic demand, and other challenges signal potential difficulties for China’s economy in the coming year.

Consumer prices in China fell for the third consecutive month in December, indicating deflationary pressures persisting in the economy.

Factory-gate prices, a measure of producer prices, extended a decline that has lasted for more than a year.

The deflationary forces, fueled by weak domestic demand and challenges in the property sector, suggest that additional policy support measures may be necessary to stimulate demand in the Chinese economy.

While China’s export and import data for December showed positive signs for global trade, the persisting deflationary pressures, coupled with challenges in the domestic economy, highlight the need for continued policy support. The prospect of lower interest rates in the US and Europe is seen as a potential boost to demand for China’s exports, but the broader economic landscape remains uncertain. Policymakers may need to carefully navigate these challenges to support and stabilize the Chinese economy.