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ECB keeps rates unchanged as expected

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its interest rates on Thursday, aligning with expectations and refrained from signaling its next move, citing persistent domestic price pressures and anticipated above-target inflation well into the next year. This decision follows a previous rate cut from record highs, which was viewed as somewhat hasty by some policymakers, given the stagnation in progress toward the 2% inflation target.

Domestic inflation remains high, driven by sticky wage growth, prompting the ECB to adopt a cautious stance regarding further rate adjustments. After the meeting, the ECB delivered a balanced message, acknowledging that while corporate profits are absorbing some price pressures, risks persist and additional evidence is required before considering another rate change.

The ECB’s post-policy meeting statement highlighted that domestic price pressures remain high, services inflation is elevated, and headline inflation is likely to exceed the target well into the next year. ECB President Christine Lagarde had indicated this outcome previously, shifting market focus to the upcoming September meeting. The ECB emphasized its reliance on incoming data to guide its decisions rather than adhering to a predetermined rate path.

Despite markets pricing in nearly two rate cuts for the remainder of the year and more than five by the end of the next year, no policymaker has openly challenged this view recently. The central bank remains cautious about providing specific future guidance, learning from past experiences where such specificity led to complications.

The timing of the September 12 policy meeting presents another challenge, as it is unusually far off, with a substantial amount of economic data expected before then. Quarterly growth, wages, and productivity figures, along with two more monthly inflation readings, are due before the meeting. Additionally, the ECB will present its new inflation and growth projections at that meeting. Consequently, policymakers are likely to solidify their views on the September meeting only in the closing weeks of August at the earliest.