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EURUSD – bears are regaining traction after brief recovery

EURUSD accelerated lower in early Monday trading, generating initial signal that two-day recovery is likely over, and larger bears are regaining control.

The notion is supported by the long shadow of Friday’s daily candle, which indicated strong upside rejection (recovery was capped by broken Fibo 38.2% of 0.9535/1.1275 rally, reverted to solid resistance and reinforced by falling 10DMA).

Larger downtrend (the pair has registered eleven consecutive weekly losses) paused for a brief consolidation on oversold daily studies but persisting strong downside pressure limited recovery attempts.

Technical studies remain in full bearish setup on daily chart, adding to signals of possible bearish continuation scenario, with break of 1.0488 (new nine-month low) to expose target at 1.0405 (50% retracement) and risk deeper drop on break.

Near-term bias is expected to remain with bears while 1.0611 barrier caps the action.

Busy calendar for this week suggests that volatility is likely to increase, with release of US Sep Manufacturing PMI being the highlight today.

The activity in manufacturing sector is expected to show slight improvement in September (47.7 f/c vs 47.6 in Aug) though the sector remains in a contraction (below 50 threshold) since November 2022, but initial signals of reversal might be developing, as the indicator gradually recovered from June’s multi-year low in past two months.

Investors will be also closely watching series of releases of reports from the US labor sector this week (JOLTS; ADP; NFP) which will provide more evidence about the conditions in the sector and contribute to Fed’s creation of the monetary policy in coming months.

Res: 1.0598; 1.0617; 1.0652; 1.0700
Sup: 1.0483; 1.0405; 1.0284; 1.0200