EURUSD – bears to take a breather above key 1.1500 support zone

The Euro fell to the lowest in three and a half months (1.1507) on Monday after starting the week with gap-lower opening.

Fresh risk aversion on escalation in the Middle East further deflated the single currency, to confirm break of trendline support (1.1608), as well as break below congestion of past three days that pushed the price to new 2026 low and generated an initial signal of continuation of larger downtrend from 1.2082 (2026 peak, posted on Jan 27).

Weakening technical picture on daily chart (MA’s turned to full bearish configuration with attempts to form 20/55DMA and 10/100 DMA bear-crosses; 14-d momentum continues to trend lower, deeply in negative territory) supports negative scenario.

Meanwhile, key supports at 1.1500/1.1490 zone (psychological / weekly higher base /top of thick ascending weekly Ichimoku cloud) provided headwinds to bears and pushed the price higher.

Bounce is likely to be limited (ideally to be capped under 1.1700 zone) and mark positioning for fresh push lower, as geopolitical instability and sharp rise in oil prices are expected to fuel inflation which would hurt economic growth and prompt the ECB to stay on hold, with all these factors to keep the Euro on negative path.

Res: 1.1618; 1.1669; 1.1694; 1.1742
Sup: 1.1507; 1.1490; 1.1391; 1.1355