EURUSD – fresh attempts higher face strong barrier at 1.2345, four-day congestion top
The Euro moved higher in early European trading after quiet trading in Asia on Tuesday.
Downbeat German retail sales data showed no impact, with focus turning towards Manufacturing PMI data from EU members.
Fresh attempts higher struggle at 1.2340 zone (converged 10/20/55SMA’s) after strong upside rejection at 1.2345 on Monday, keeping near-term action within 1.2280/1.2345 congestion for the fourth straight day.
Positive signals come from slow stochastic emerging from oversold territory and ascending 14-d momentum which attempts into positive territory, however, break above a cluster of MA’s and regain of next pivot at 1.2355/57 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2476/1.2281 / base of 4-hr cloud) is required to confirm recovery and expose key barriers at 1.2394/1.2401 (Fibo 61.8% / daily cloud top).
Otherwise, the pair could stay in extended consolidation on repeated recovery failure, with downside to remain vulnerable.
Bearish scenario sees violation of n/t congestion floor at 1.2280 as signal for fresh weakness which could extend towards double-bottom at 1.2240.
Res: 1.2345; 1.2357; 1.2401; 1.2430
Sup: 1.2292; 1.2280; 1.2240; 1.2200