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EURUSD – larger bears likely to resume after limited correction, FOMC minutes eyed for fresh signals

The Euro narrowed range in holiday-thinned Monday trading, as bounce from last Wednesday’s 13-week low (1.0695) started to lose traction after being repeatedly capped by 100DMA (1.0790).

Formation of bear-trap below Fibo 61.8% support on Friday was bullish signal, but positive impact was offset by weak daily studies (negative momentum / MA’s in bearish setup), with increased risk of recovery stall expected while the price action stays below important barriers at 1.0790/1.0830 zone (converging 100/20DMA’s / Fibo 23.6% of 1.1139/1.0695 / daily cloud base).

Such scenario could also be boosted by extended hawkishness from the Fed (FOMC minutes of the last policy meeting will be released late Wednesday), which would further inflate dollar on extended period of unchanged interest rates and delay of rate cuts.

Return and close below 10DMA (1.0762) will generate initial bearish signal and make the downside more vulnerable of renewed probe through cracked 1.0712 Fibo support, loss of which to signal continuation of larger downtrend from 1.1139 (Dec 28 top)

Res: 1.0800; 1.0830; 1.0864; 1.0875
Sup: 1.0762; 1.0712; 1.0695; 1.0611