EURUSD – negative outlook below 30SMA

The Euro holds in red in early European trading on Thursday and pressures Tuesday’s low at 1.2253, following limited upside action in Asia (capped at 1.2290).
Strong upside rejection on Wednesday, when upside attempts stalled just under 30 SMA which capped the action in past five days, maintains negative near-term tone.
Also, Wednesday’s close below 1.2277 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2154/1.2476 ascend) was negative signal.
Near-term bears eye targets at 1.2240/30 (20/21 Mar higher base / Fibo 76.4%), to open way towards key supports at 1.2154/45 (01 Mar trough / daily cloud base, reinforced by rising 100SMA).
Hourly cloud (spanned between 1.2285 and 1.2300) capped overnight’s upside attempts, guarding pivotal 30SMA (1.2317), break above which would sideline immediate downside risk.
Releases of EU Services PMI and retail sales are key events of the European session.
Services PMI is forecasted unchanged in March (55.0), while retail sales are expected to regain traction in Feb after negative figures in previous two months (Feb f/c 0.6% m/m vs -0.1% in Jan).

Res: 1.2290; 1.2317; 1.2337; 1.2362
Sup: 1.2240; 1.2230; 1.2200; 1.2154