Technical Outlook

Bears get trapped but recovery attempts lack momentum

The pair bounces on Monday, following several failures to break below thin daily cloud (bears were contained by 200SMA, currently at 14.24) that signal possible reversal after bears were trapped just below daily cloud. Reversal of daily slow stochastic from oversold zone adds to positive signals, however, fresh recovery attempts see minimum…
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Geopolitical tensions continue to underpin oil prices

WTI oil remains in green for the fifth straight day and extends recovery to three-week high on Monday. Rising tensions between the US and Iran and new sanctions Tehran that Washington is about to announce, keep oil prices supported. Bulls are approaching strong barriers at $58.59/80 zone (50% of $66.58/$50.59 / converged 100/200SMA’s) violation…
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Extended bulls struggle at key Fibo barrier

The Australian dollar extends advance on Monday after Friday’s long-legged Doji and cracked pivotal Fibo barrier at 0.6949 (61.8% of 0.7022/0.6831). Fresh bullish extension hit two-week high at 0.6961, boosted by dovish tone from Fed, which could result in 0.5% rate cut in July. Extended short squeeze may show signs of stall as bulls lack…
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Extended bulls crack key Fibo barrier but may slow here

The Euro cracked strong Fibo barrier at 1.1393 (61.8% of 1.1569/1.1107) on Monday, in extension of past three days 1.6% advance, which resulted in break and close above falling 200SMA (1.1350) on Friday. Strong bullish momentum remains intact and supportive for break through 1.1393 /1.1400 pivots (Fibo / psychological barrier) that would open way…
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Bulls face headwinds from pivotal barrier at 1.2763

Cable eased from new one-month high at 1.2766 in early European trading on Monday after bulls faced strong headwinds from key barrier at 1.2763 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3179/1.2505 / 7 June high). Strong four-day advance from 1.2505 low is taking a breather, as bulls remain supported by expectations of Fed rate cut by 0.5% and may position for fresh…
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Lira advances after opposition victory in Istanbul

The pair opened with gap-lower on Monday and extended weakness to the lowest level in 1 ½ month in early European session trading. The dollar continues to weaken on Fed’s signal of interest rate cut, while lira was boosted by renewed optimism after opposition candidate won on repeated vote in Istanbul. Expectations that the government will focus…
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Corrective bounce likely to precede fresh weakness

The pair rebounds from new multi-month low at 107.04 on Friday as traders take profits from post-Fed two-day 1.1% fall. Oversold daily studies support the action which eyes barriers at 107.81/98 (former low of 5 June / falling 5SMA), ahead of descending 10SMA (108.23). Overall bearish structure favors limited corrective action before bears…
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