Gold – bears take a breather at key support zone but still hold grip, geopolitics remain in focus

Gold edged higher on Wednesday after cracking important $4500 support zone (50% retracement of $4099/$4889 rally / recent higher base) which provides significant headwinds to larger bears.

Partial profit-taking on oversold conditions / eased tensions in the Middle East on the latest narrative from US officials about potential peace agreement, keep bears temporarily on hold, but so far without significant bounce from pivotal supports.

The yellow metal price may rise further in scenario of sustainable peace deal, which would ease uncertainty over energy supply problems and decrease inflationary pressure, one of dollar’s main drivers nowadays.

Conversely, persistent geopolitical tensions would continue to fuel price pressures and keep the dollar supported. In such scenario, firm break of $4500 zone would further strengthen predominantly bearish near-term structure and expose supports at $4401 (Fibo 61.8%) and $4359 (200DMA).

Lower platform / broken Fibo 38.2% ($4587) offers solid resistance which should ideally cap upticks and guard $4624 (converged 10/20DMAs).

Res: 4543; 4587; 4624; 4676
Sup: 4453; 4401; 4359; 4300