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No-deal Brexit scenario becomes more likely than agreement

The Great Britain is more likely to leave the European Union without a trade agreement than with a deal, EU Commission chief said on Friday, with similar tones coming from top UK officials, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that there was a strong possibility a trade agreement would not be reached.

Britain remains an informal member of the EU single market and customs union until December 31, when the transition period ends.

No-deal scenario means that two sides will lose $1 trillion-worth annual trade, while Britain will lose zero-tariff and zero quota access the single market of 450 million consumers.

Marathon negotiations remain deadlocked over fishing rights and EU demands for Britain to be punished if it diverges from union’s rules, as both sides not willing to compromise and unlock negotiations.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met earlier this week and have given negotiators until the end of the week to break the impasse at talks.

British officials expressed slight optimism that a deal was still possible but pointed that a deal cannot come at any price and that Britain – which joined the first union of European countries in 1973 – would succeed with or without a deal.

On the other side, EU diplomats see Johnson’s rhetoric as theatrics, as he tries to please his domestic Brexit supporters but to clinch a deal at the end, as no-deal scenario would damage both economies and send shockwaves through financial markets.