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Oil price extends weakness after 5.5% drop on Tuesday, driven by demand worries and expected interest rate hikes

Crude prices remain in red in early Wednesday and hit new lowest since Mar 27, keeping negative sentiment on growing concerns over darkening macroeconomic outlook and its impact on oil demand.

Markets also focus on two key events – Fed and ECB policy meetings, due today (Fed) and on Thursday (ECB).

Both central banks are expected to raise interest rates and investors will be looking for signals about Fed’s future policy path, as signs of further rise in borrowing cost would add to negative impact on economic growth and hurt demand, as economic outlook was also weighed by the crisis in the banking sector.

Unexpected drop in China’s manufacturing activity also contributes to demand woes, as China is world’s top oil importer and the largest energy consumer.

On the other hand, OPEC oil output fell in April and expected to drop further in May, when the latest OPEC measure for production cuts take effect, with US stockpiles falling for the third consecutive week.

Oil price fell by 5.5% on Tuesday (the biggest daily loss in 2023) and generated fresh negative signal on close below pivotal Fibo support at $71.66 (61.8% retracement of $64.34/$83.51).

Bears pressure support at $70.89 (daily Ichimoku cloud base), the last obstacle en-route to psychological $70 support and $68.86 (Fibo 76.4% retracement) where stronger headwinds could be expected, as oversold daily studies.

Potential upticks should be capped by daily cloud top ($73.49) to keep bears intact.

Res: 71.66; 72.48; 73.49; 74.00
Sup: 70.89; 70.00; 68.86; 66.81