Risk of deeper pullback if EIA report surprises negatively
WTI oil dips over $3 on Wednesday as sentiment soured after ADP report on Tuesday showed higher than estimated rise in crude stocks.
Traders now focus on EIA report (7.75 million barrels rise is forecasted vs previous week’s build of 8.99 million barrels) as fears grow that inventories may rise above expectations that would further boost revived oversupply concerns.
WTI contract is down slightly above 10% for the day at the US session opening, holding in red for the first time in seven days.
Impressive recovery during the past week when oil price accelerated from $10 zone and peaked at $26.00 today, shows initial signs that bulls are running out of steam.
Daily chart indicators (momentum / stochastic / RSI) turned south after peaking and add to initial negative signals, but fundamentals are expected to remain key driver of oil prices.
Last week’s rally did show strong signs that market regains confidence and raised hopes that disbalance in oil market may self-adjust, but as I mentioned in previous reports, overall situation is still fragile and risk of renewed weakness persists.
Today’s easing so far looks like correction on overbought studies, which should be ideally contained at $20/$19 zone to offer better buying opportunities and keep fresh bulls in play.
Caution on loss of these supports and other significant points at $18.56/37 (Fibo 38.2% of $6.52/$26.00 recovery leg / rising 10DMA) break of which would weaken near-term structure and risk further weakness.
Res: 23.66; 24.47; 25.54; 26.00
Sup: 22.56; 21.40; 20.80; 20.00