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US durable goods orders rebound in February

The recent data on US durable goods orders paints a positive picture for the economy, indicating a stronger-than-expected increase of 1.4% in February, surpassing the forecast of 1.1%. Although there was a downward revision in January’s figures, which now show a 6.9% decline compared to the previously reported 6.2%, the overall trend suggests an upward trajectory.

The rise in orders for long-lasting US manufactured goods, particularly in transportation equipment, primary metals, and machinery, signals a potential resurgence in manufacturing activity. This growth is seen as a positive indicator for the economy’s prospects in the first quarter, especially considering the tentative signs of recovery in business spending on equipment.

The increase in orders, coupled with indications of recovering business equipment investment and favorable expectations for corporate bond yields, suggests that manufacturing may be on a path to further improvement. This sentiment is reinforced by the year-on-year advance of 1.8% in February, indicating a gradual strengthening of the manufacturing sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the US economy.

Moreover, the outlook for manufacturing appears to be steadily improving, buoyed by expectations of rate cuts from the US central bank later in the year. This anticipation of monetary policy easing aligns with the broader economic narrative of supportive measures to stimulate growth.

The positive sentiment among manufacturers, as reflected in the Institute for Supply Management’s survey showing optimism about sales and business conditions in March, further reinforces the notion of a recovering manufacturing sector. However, it’s important to note that while factory output rebounded in February, challenges remain, suggesting that the sector is not entirely out of the woods yet.

Overall, the data on durable goods orders and manufacturing activity indicate a positive trajectory for the US economy, with signs of improvement in key sectors and expectations of supportive monetary policy measures contributing to the optimistic outlook.