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US inflation rises in line with expectations in January – PCE

The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in January, in line with expectations, but up from December’s downwardly revised increase by 0.1%.

Annualized figure showed that PCE inflation rose 2.4% in January, in the smallest increase in three years, meeting expectations and declining below 2.6% advance previous month.

Although prices picked up in January, economists see an increase as minor, which keeps in play expectations for interest rate cut in June.

So-called core PCE price index, less volatile inflation measure, which excludes food and energy prices was up 0.4% in January, matching consensus and above December’s 0.1% increase (downwardly revised from 0.2%).

Core inflation was down to 2.8% year-on-year in January, in line with expectations but increasing less than in January (2.9%).

The PCE index is Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, with monthly reading of 0.2% over time, needed to bring inflation to the central bank’s 2% target.

The data released earlier this week showed slight upward revisions to inflation in the last three months of 2023, which pushed back expectations for the first rate cut from May to June.

Fed policymakers signaled earlier this month that they are not in hurry to start easing monetary policy and require more evidence that inflation is moving steadily towards 2% target.

The Fed kept its borrowing cost unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50% range in past few policy meetings, indicating that rates have peaked, and rate cuts should be expected this year.