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US private payrolls fall below expectations in November – ADP

Private payrolls in the United States increased by 103,000 jobs in November, the ADP National Employment Report showed.

Last month’s figure fell short of expectations for 130,000 jobs added, indicating a slower pace of job creation, while October’s figure was revised downward from 113,000 to 106,000.

The US labor market is gradually slowing down, influenced by the 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve since March 2022.
This follows the recent government report indicating a decline in job openings to a 2 ½ -year low in October.

The official employment report from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to be released on Friday.

According to surveys, private payrolls are estimated to have increased by 153,000 jobs in November, while total nonfarm payrolls, including both private and public sectors, are estimated to have increased by 180,000 in November after rising by 150,000 in the previous month.

Easing labor market conditions, along with a decrease in inflation, have led financial markets to believe that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening campaign may be over.
There is speculation that the US central bank could potentially cut interest rates as early as March next year, though the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting.

In summary, the latest data on private payrolls suggests a slower pace of job creation than anticipated. The overall labor market conditions are seen as easing, contributing to market expectations of a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in the coming months.