USDJPY – MA death cross and falling daily cloud produce headwinds to recovery attempts

USDJPY remains constructive and moved to the upper side of four-day congestion but continues to face headwinds from fading bullish momentum and freshly formed 55/200DMA death cross (strong resistance zone at 158.33/92 provided by falling 55DMA, 20 DMA and Fibo 76.4% of 160.39/152.93).

Another obstacle would be hawkish signals from BoJ, as rising inflation keeps the central bank highly alerted, while expectations for Fed Oct rate hike faded after downbeat Sep NFP data.

Daily studies show neutral to negative alignment, Ichimoku cloud turns down and started thickening that may also obstruct upside attempts (cloud base lays at 159.36) along with other indicators.

We still lack clearer direction signal, which could be developed on clear break above MA’s, cloud, as well as lower top at 159.03 (positive) or dip below 157.52 (broken Fibo 61.8%) and acceleration through supports at 156.64 (daily Kijun-sen / broken 50% retracement) that will be needed to confirm bearish signal.

Wednesday’s release of FOMC September policy meeting Minutes will be closely watched for fresh signals.

Res: 158.33; 158.62; 158.86; 159.03
Sup: 157.52; 156.95; 156.64; 155.75