AUDUSD – bounce from new three-month low was so far limited

AUDUSD – Last Friday’s bounce from new three-month low (bears were contained by the top of thick weekly Ichimoku cloud) was repeatedly obstructed by broken 200DMA (0.6458 – reverted to resistance)

Monday’s action is moving within limited range and shaped in long-legged Doji candle and signals indecision.

Conflicting fundamental signals (the latest dovish comments from Fed official revived expectations of December rate cut but countered by still prevailing concerns about inflation that may keep the central bank’s rates on hold next month) contribute to the current situation.

Investors also focus on Australia’s inflation report (due on Wednesday and the first time to be released on monthly basis, replacing old system of quarterly reports).

Technical picture remains bearishly aligned on daily chart (MA’s in bearish setup / negative momentum), with reaction on 200DMA to provide fresh signal.

Close above the moving average (0.6458, also Fibo 23.6% of 0.6580/0.6412) to add fresh optimism, though more work at the upside (lift above 0.6500 zone) needed to verify signal.

Conversely, repeated close below 200DMA to keep the downside at increased risk of violation of Aug 21 low (0.6414) and nearby Fibo 38.2% of larger 0.5914/0.6706 (0.6404).

Res: 0.6467; 0.6481; 0.6500; 0.6520
Sup: 0.6421; 0.6414; 0.6372; 0.6350