WTI Oil – growing optimism continues to pressure oil prices but more evidence still needed to confirm

WTI oil price fell on Friday following repeated failures to register close above $90 barrier and pressure the base of near-term congestion, defined by the base of daily Ichimoku cloud, as the price action moves within the cloud (spanned between $87.61 and $91.37) for the third consecutive session.

Growing optimism of a peace solution for Middle East war remains driven mainly by “Trump Indicator” after the US President said that the talks between two sides were very productive and that war is nearing its end, although persistent contradictory of his daily statements points to high volatility and suggests that the situation is still very fragile, requiring caution.

From the technical point of view, near-term structure continues to weaken, as the price action continues to move lower within the bear channel, with strengthening negative momentum and converged daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen about to form bear-cross.

Firm break of daily cloud base and nearby 50% retracement of $54.87/$119.44 ($87.16) is needed to generate fresh bearish signal and expose targets at $84.70/50; $81.78 and $80, in extension), as the WTI is on track for the second consecutive massive weekly loss (two large bearish weekly candles produce significant pressure).

On the other hand, prolonged sideways mode should be expected in case on repeated failure at cloud base, while first positive signal could be expected on lift above daily cloud.

Res: 90.00; 91.80; 92.46; 94.27
Sup: 87.16; 84.80; 84.50; 80.00