GOLD – bulls hold grip ahead US inflation data, Fed Warsh speech in Jackson Hole

Gold keeps firm tone and holds near four-month high on Monday, following almost 5% advance last week, with surprise US Treasury’s buyback being mainly behind the latest rally.

Traders also look for more cues about the US monetary policy outlook in coming months, with focus on Wednesday’s release of US PCE Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and speech of Fed Chair Warsh in the Jackson Hole symposium (starts on Thursday) as key economic events of the week.

Multiple MA bull-crosses and strong positive momentum contribute to increasingly bullish structure on daily chart, although overbought conditions warn that bulls may take a breather.

Limited dips should find ground above broken 200DMA ($4516, which reverted to solid support) to keep larger bulls intact and provide better buying levels.

Bulls pressure immediate target bat $4666 (Fibo 76.4% retracement of $4889/$3942), violation of which to open way towards $4773 (May 12 high) and unmask $4889 (Apr 17 peak).

Res: 4666; 4700; 4773; 4833
Sup: 4590; 4516; 4454; 4416