USDTRY – another negative release from Turkey keeps lira under pressure for retest of 4.3741 record high and extension towards 4.40 target

The USDTRY pair extended recovery on Monday to 4.35 but was so far unable to hold gains and fell back to 4.30 zone.
Footstep was found at 4.30 zone and this could be a base for fresh extension higher.
Friday’s strong recovery rally from 4.22, where two-day pullback from new record high at 4.3741 found support, left bullish outside day which is bullish signal.
Lira remains under strong pressure and last week’s pullback could be positioning for USDTRY’s fresh upside action.
Negative lira’s sentiment on low interest rates and rising inflation was soured further on today’s release of Turkey’s trade data.
Current account unexpectedly widened to $4.81 billion in March, strongly overshooting forecast for $4.12 billion and previous month’s trade gap at $4.15 billion.
Bulls look for retest of record high at 4.3741 and attack at 4.40 barrier initially, but could extend towards Fibo projections at 4.4328 and 1.4691 (138.2% & 161.8% of the upleg from 4.22, respectively), regain of which would open way towards strong psychological barrier at 4.50.
Rising 10SMA continues to track the ascend after containing last week’s corrective dip and marks pivotal support at 4.2456.

Res: 4.3500; 4.3741; 4.4000; 4.4328
Sup: 4.3000; 4.2791; 4.2567; 4.2456