AUDUSD – bears remain fully in play but extended consolidation is to precede fresh downside
The Aussie dollar bounced above 0.77 mark on Friday after strong fall on Thursday threatened of retesting new three-month low at 0.7672, posted on Wednesday. Recovery attempts were so far limited (capped at 0.7730) as technicals are firmly bearish and reinforced by risk aversion on trade war fears, but bears lacked strength for stronger downside action so far. Near-term price action remains in extended congestion between new low (0.7372) and broken 100SMA (0.7782) which rejected repeated attacks and is reinforced by formation of 10/100SMA bear-cross, which formed today. Bears may stay on hold for some time before continuing, with limited upside actions to be capped by falling 10SMA (currently at 0.7768). Eventual break lower to expose support at 0.7650 (Fibo 76.4% of 0.7500/0.8135 rally), loss of which would risk return to key 0.7500 support as no significant obstacles lays en-route. To neutralize persisting bearish pressure, break and close above 100SMA is required.