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AUDUSD – bulls hold grip but look for fresh direction signal from RBA’s decision

AUDUSD remains constructive and consolidating around 0.65 level on Monday, after 2.8% surge on Friday, sparked by weaker than expected US labor data which deflated US dollar on fading prospects of further rate hikes and holding high borrowing cost for longer period.

The pair closed marginally above 0.65 barrier on Friday, registering the first weekly close above this level since late May (0.65 also marks Fibo 38.2% retracement of 0.6894/0.6270 bear-leg and is reinforced by falling 100DMA which adds to significance of the barrier).

Daily technical studies are improving, but near-term action needs firm break above 0.6500 zone to confirm signal and spark fresh acceleration higher, targeting 0.6582/89 (50% retracement / daily cloud top) and 0.6617 (200DMA) in extension.

Overbought conditions suggest that bulls may take a breather and consolidate ahead of key event – RBA policy meeting-due early Tuesday.

Aussie dollar may rise further as markets widely expect the central bank to deliver another 25 basis points hike, though the focus will be on the post-meeting statement which needs to be hawkish to confirm signal.

Conversely, dovish hike or decision to stay on hold would sour the sentiment and deflate Australian currency.

Res: 0.6521; 0.6589; 0.6617; 0.6696
Sup: 0.6490; 0.6445; 0.6417; 0.6397