AUDUSD – cluster of strong barriers capped recovery; fears of trade war weigh on Aussie
The Aussie dollar pulled back from post-Fed recovery highs on Thursday after repeated attacks failed to break above initial barrier at 0.7775 (100SMA). Positive impact from Fed could be offset by increasing fears about trade war, as President Trump is expected to announce tariffs on Chinese imports today. Plethora of MA barriers between 0.7775 and 0.7818 weighs heavily and marks strong obstacle (reinforced by the base of thick daily cloud) where recovery attempts may stall, as the structure weakened on trade war fears and he notion is supported by negative momentum studies. Today’s pullback already retraced 50% of Wednesday’s rally, with further weakness and close below 0.7715 (Fibo 61.8%) would confirm reversal and shift near-term focus lower. Conversely, bullish scenario requires surge through 0.7775/0.7818 resistance zone and close above to neutralize downside risk and signal further recovery.