AUDUSD – falling 10SMA continues to cap recovery; US CPI data expected to provide fresh signal
The Australian dollar ticked higher on broadly weaker dollar on Wednesday and probed above falling 10SMA (0.7873) but gains were short-lived so far.
Tuesday’s Doji candle which came after two days of strong rally was signal that recovery might be running out of steam.
Negative 14-d momentum and neutral RSI on daily chart also warn of stall.
Rising daily cloud continues to underpin, but bulls need clear break through 10SMA and another pivotal barrier at 0.7902 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.8135/0.7758 bear-leg / falling daily Tenkan-sen) to generate stronger signal for further recovery extension towards 0.7947 (daily Kijun-sen).
Conversely, repeated close below 10SMA will be initial bearish signal which would increase downside risk and expose lower pivot at 0.7807 (rising 55SMA).
US CPI data are expected to provide stronger signal.
Res: 0.7873; 0.7889; 0.7902; 0.7947
Sup: 0.7851; 0.7827; 0.7807; 0.7770