AUDUSD – larger bulls take a breather under new 2025 peak

AUDUSD trades within a narrow consolidation under new 2025 high (0.6563) for the second consecutive day and keeps firm bullish stance for now.

Technical picture remains firmly bullish on daily chart (the action is underpinned by thick ascending daily Ichimoku cloud), with additional positive signal from massive bullish engulfing on weekly chart and the pair being on track for the sixth consecutive monthly gain.

Bulls cracked important Fibo barrier at 0.6549 (61.8% of Sep 2024/Apr 2025, 0.6942/0.5914, downtrend) but were so far unable to register close above this level that would generate fresh bullish signal and expose targets at 0.6700 zone (Fibo 76.4% / 200WMA).

Overbought stochastic on daily chart probably keeps bulls on hold, with more quiet mode seen ahead of release of June report from US labor sector, which is likely to have significant contribution to Fed’s rate decisions in coming months.

Contained by converged 10/20DMA’s (0.6500) offer initial support which should ideally keep the downside protected, though deeper dips cannot be ruled out and should find firm ground above the top of daily cloud (0.6451) to keep bulls intact.

Caution on potential penetration of daily cloud which would expose next trigger at 0.6410 (Fibo 23.6% of 0.5914/0.6563 upleg / daily higher base).

Res: 0.6563; 0.6598; 0.6622; 0.6700
Sup: 0.6500; 0.6451; 0.6410; 0.6372