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Bank of Japan keeps its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged

The Bank of Japan has opted to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy settings in a widely anticipated decision.

At the recently concluded two-day meeting, the BOJ kept its short-term rate target at -0.1% and maintained the target for the 10-year government bond yield at around 0%.

The central bank also retained its dovish policy guidance, disappointing expectations among some traders who were hoping for a signal of a near-term end to negative interest rates.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while there were positive movements in prices and wages, the overall conditions remained uncertain.

The accompanying statement reiterated the BOJ’s commitment to take additional easing steps if necessary, emphasizing the extremely high level of uncertainty regarding the economy.

Japan has experienced inflation staying above 2% for over a year, and some companies have indicated their willingness to continue raising wages, potentially signaling a shift in policy in the near future. However, Governor Ueda’s comments suggest a cautious approach, citing ongoing uncertainty.

While many economists anticipate the BOJ to end its negative rate policy next year, with April being considered the most likely timing by half of them, there are varying opinions.

Some analysts see the possibility of a policy shift as early as January. The BOJ may find it more convenient to make such moves during months like January and April when it releases a quarterly outlook report with updated growth and price projections.

However, the evolving global monetary policy landscape poses challenges to the BOJ’s decision-making. The indication from U.S. and European central banks that they are done hiking rates adds complexity. Raising rates in Japan while other central banks are cutting them might lead to a yen spike, negatively impacting the profits of major manufacturers and potentially discouraging wage hikes. The central bank is likely considering these factors in the context of its commitment to maintaining economic stability and achieving its inflation target.