Bears may pause for consolidation before resuming
The Euro consolidating within a tight range in early Monday’s trading, but keeps overall bearish bias for further weakness.
The latest data showed that inflation in the US remains elevated, which adds to recent hawkish tones from Fed and continues to fuel dollar.
The single currency was down 1.3% vs greenback last week and on track for a monthly drop of around 3%, which contributes to bearish near-term outlook.
Technical studies on daily chart are predominantly bearish but oversold and suggesting that bears may take a breather before resuming.
Immediate targets lay at 1.0483/60 (Jan 6 low / Fibo 38.2% retracement of 0.9535/1.1032, reinforced by 100DMA), with break lower to expose next significant supports at 1.0329/1.0284 (200DMA / 50% retracement).
Formation of reversal pattern on monthly chart (the pair is on track for strong monthly drop after four-month rally) also weighs on Euro, as monthly techs keep bearish momentum and stochastic is overbought.
Falling daily Tenkan-sen (1.0638) marks initial resistance, which should ideally cap, with stronger upticks to stall under daily cloud top (1.0765) to keep in play larger bears off 1.1032 (2023 high, posted on Feb 2).
Res: 1.0587; 1.0638; 1.0679; 1.0765
Sup: 1.0483; 1.0460; 1.0411; 1.0329