Bullish outlook above daily cloud
The Euro probed again above 1.1300 barrier, boosted by better than expected French / German PMI data which showed that EU business growth picked up in June.
The single currency remains firm despite signals from the ECB about further policy easing if inflation fails to rise.
Thursday’s long bullish candle (the Euro was up 0.6% for the day) underpins near-term action, along with strong bullish signals generated on daily close above pivotal barriers at 1.1279/84 (daily cloud top / bear-trendline / Fibo 61.8% of 1.1347/1.1181).
Technical studies show daily MA’s in full bullish setup, but weaker momentum and flat RSI partially offset positive signals.
The pair may hold in extended consolidation above daily cloud which would keep bulls intact for fresh upside attempts.
Sustained break above 1.1300/08 (psychological barrier / Fibo 76.4%) is needed to open way for attack at key barriers at 1.1347/51 (200WMA / 7 June high / 200SMA).
Conversely, return and close below daily cloud top would soften near-term tone and risk deeper pullback that would also generate an initial signal of recovery stall.
Res: 1.1317; 1.1347; 1.1351; 1.1377
Sup: 1.1284; 1.1279; 1.1262; 1.1237