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Dollar continues to fly on growing expectations that the Fed will stay in higher for longer rate mode

The dollar index extends strong rally on Monday, after advancing 0.8% on Friday and started the week with gap higher opening.

Upbeat May NFP numbers on Friday added to hawkish stance and signal that the Fed may keep its higher for longer rate policy, which revived bulls and lifted the greenback sharply.

Markets focus on Wednesday’s release of US May CPI (y/y figure expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%) and subsequent policy decision at the end of FOMC two-day meeting, with the most interesting part to be Fed’s ‘dot plots’ projections of the path of interest rates.

Fed’s latest projection, released in March, showed expectations for three 25-basis points rate cuts until the end of the year and the main question will be how much the Fed will revise down its previous projection.

More hawkish tone from US policymakers on Wednesday will mean more support for the greenback.

Fresh bullish acceleration from Friday’s multi-week low (103.61) has already retraced almost 61.8% of larger 106.36/103.61 downtrend, turning technical picture on daily chart into bullish mode and shifting near-term focus to the upside.

Break above the top of thick daily Ichimoku cloud (105.18) generated bullish signal (which requires confirmation od daily close above the cloud) and adds to improved technical picture (14-d momentum broke into positive territory and MA’s turned to bullish setup).

Also, bear-trap on weekly chart (bull-trendline / 20WMA) underpins near-term action.

Violation of Fibo 61.8% pivot (105.31) to further strengthen bullish structure and open way towards targets at 105.71/106.00 (Fibo 76.4% / round-figure).

Corrective dips are likely to be limited (ideally to be contained by broken 55DMA at 104.88 and not to exceed trendline support at 104.61) to keep bulls in play.


Res: 105.31; 105.62; 105.71; 106.00
Sup: 105.18; 104.98; 104.61; 104.46