Dollar falls further on tariffs, dovish Fed and German stimulus

The dollar index extends steep fall into third straight day, under strong pressure from tariff concerns, dovish shift in US policymakers narrative on interest rates and signals about German stimulus.

The dollar was down almost 2.5% in past three days and hit new 2025 low (also the lowest in four months).

Fresh bearish signals were generated on break of strong supports at 104.92/81(50% retracement of 99.84/110.00 / 200DMA) with close below these levels needed to validate signal.

Daily technical studies turned into full bearish setup, adding to negative near-term outlook. Bears eye next targets at 103.72 (Fibo 61.8%) and 103.25 (Nov 5 higher low), though oversold conditions suggest that consolidation may precede next drop.

Extended upticks should stay capped under 106 zone to keep bears in play.

Markets focus on reports from US labor sector,  with data released today showed that private payrolls halved expectations in February, pointing to the slowest increase in payrolls in private sector in seven months, while key NFP data are due to be released on Friday.

Res: 104.81; 104.92; 105.37; 105.71
Sup: 104.00; 103.72; 103.25; 103.00