Dollar maintains firm bearish tone but consolidation may precede fresh push lower
The dollar edges higher from new nearly five-month low on Wednesday as increased demand at the end of the month dent larger bears.
Recovery is likely to be limited and offer better opportunities to re-enter the downtrend, as bears took out important supports at 90.13/00 (Fibo 76.4% of 89.15/93.45 / psychological) and look for weekly and monthly close below these levels to confirm strong bearish stance.
Bearish studies on all larger timeframes (day / week/ month) support the notion, with strong warning of deeper fall coming from monthly techs, as the pair is on track for the second consecutive strong monthly loss.
Bears focus 2021 low at 89.15 (Jan 6) violation of which would risk dip to 88.24/14 (50% retracement of 2011/2020 72.69/103.80 rally / 2018 low), also the floor of larger 88.24/103.80 three-year range.
Broken 90.00 support (reinforced by falling 10DMA) and broken Fib support (90.16) reverted to solid resistances which should ideally cap the upticks, while break here and 90.45 (daily Kijun-sen) would sideline bears for stronger correction.
Res: 90.00; 90.38; 90.45; 90.88
Sup: 89.50; 89.15; 88.93; 88.24