Dovish Fed further deflates dollar
The dollar index remains firmly in red for the sixth straight day and hit new seven-week low in early Thursday, after Fed’s decision further soured the sentiment.
The US central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% / 5.00% range, as widely expected, but toned down its expectations for monetary policy, in the light of the latest crisis in banking sector.
Shift in Fed’s rhetoric by dropping a promise of ongoing increases, in a continuous fight with high inflation, by softer tones which consider the significance of potential negative impact if banking sector crisis deepens, added pressure on the dollar.
Although Fed officials pointed that some additional policy firming may be needed, with one more 25 basis points hike by the end of the year, this signals turn from the recent hawkish stance, hinting that tightening cycle is likely near its end, as the Fed kept its projection for the terminal rate at 5.1% unchanged.
Technical studies on daily chart show strong negative momentum and moving averages in full bearish configuration and forming a number of bear-crosses.
Fresh acceleration lower broke below the last Fibo support at 101.88 (76.4% retracement of 100.66/105.85 rally) and also emerged below ascending weekly Ichimoku cloud, with weekly close below the cloud to add to negative signals.
Key support at 100.66 (2023 low, posted of Feb 2) comes in focus, with minor obstacles at 101.36/25 (3/18 Feb lows) seen en-route.
However, oversold conditions suggest that bears may take a breather, with upticks expected to offer better selling opportunities.
Significant resistances at 102.65/83 (broken Fibo 61.8% / daily cloud base) should cap upticks to keep larger bears intact.
Res: 102.07; 102.65; 102.83; 103.12
Sup: 101.53; 101.25; 100.66; 100.00