EURUSD – downside remains at risk for extension below 1.1574 pivot, while falling 10SMA caps
The Euro stands at the back foot on Monday and pressuring 1.1600 support, which guards post ECB’s multi-month low at 1.1574, posted on 27 Sep.
Last Friday’s close in red which formed bearish Outside Day pattern, weighs on near-term action for renewed attempt at 1.1574 pivot and extension of the downleg from 1.2092.
Completion of H&S pattern on daily chart was strong bearish signal, however, the pair needs clear break below 1.1574/1.1690 congestion to confirm bearish continuation.
Sustained break below 1.1574 would open next strong support at 1.1510 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0570/1.2092 rally).
Falling 10SMA which formed bear-cross with 100SMA last week continues to cap upside attempts and offers solid resistance at 1.1662.
Alternative scenario requires close above 1.1690 (last Friday’s high / top of near-term consolidation range) to sideline immediate bearish threats, with lift above 1.1705/27 (daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen) needed to signal stronger recovery.
Res: 1.1628; 1.1662; 1.1690; 1.1705
Sup: 1.1595; 1.1574; 1.1510; 1.1445