EURUSD – negative outlook below 200SMA; close below 1.1936 Fibo support to confirm
The Euro stands at the back foot at the beginning of the week and probes through cracked Fibo support at 1.1936 (61.8% of 1.1553/1.2555 ascend) which held the consolidation in past few sessions.
Recovery attempts in Asia were capped under 1.20 barrier, keeping intact key barrier at 1.2016 (200SMA).
Negative near-term outlook is expected to persist while 200SMA caps and keep in focus target at 1.1910 (Friday’s spike low / new 2018 low), with stronger bearish acceleration capable of travelling towards 1.1790 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.1553/1.2555).
Eventual close below 1.1936 is seen as initial requirement for bearish continuation.
Meanwhile, the pair may hold within extended consolidation between 1.1936 and 200SMA, on conflicting daily studies (slow stochastic is reversing from oversold zone while 14-d momentum continues to trend lower.
Bullish scenario requires close above 200SMA to sideline immediate downside risk and signal recovery.
Res: 1.1978; 1.2000; 1.2016; 1.2053
Sup: 1.1910; 1.1893; 1.1854; 1.1816