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GBPUSD – initial signs of basing near 200SMA need confirmation to neutralize persisting downside risk

Cable is holding around cracked 200SMA (1.3539) in early Tuesday’s trading, after steep fall from 1.4376 (17 Apr post-Brexit recovery peak) found footstep at this zone.
The pair generated initial positive signals on repeated close above 200SMA in past two days, which was underpinned by slow stochastic attempts to reverse from oversold territory and slowdown of strong bearish momentum.
Confirmation of basing requires stronger upside action and regain of falling 10SMA (currently at 1.3674) to sideline existing downside risk and signal correction.
Conversely, eventual close below 200SMA could be negative signal for extension of steep fall from 1.4376 and test of next strong support at 1.3442 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1930/1.4376 recovery phase).

Res: 1.3575; 1.3593; 1.3629; 1.3674
Sup: 1.3515; 1.3486; 1.3442; 1.3400