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Higher than expected EU inflation in May sends fresh warning to the ECB

Consumer prices in the Eurozone rose by 2.6% year on year in May, moving further away from the ECB’s 2% target, following an increase by 2.4% in the previous two months and ticked above 2.5% consensus.

A more significant and closely watched core CPI, which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco components, rose by 2.9% last month from 2.7% in April and disappointed expectations for an unchanged figure in May.

A stronger than expected inflation rise in May points to further obstacles to the European Central Bank’s task to reach its goal of bringing inflation to 2% target, though disappointing numbers were unlikely to have a significant impact to strong signals that the ECB will start lowering interest rates from a record high in the next week’s policy meeting, but may signal a pause in July and s slow the pace of rate cuts in coming months.

ECB policymakers see the latest data as neither good nor bad that adds to the general view that the central bank could cut rates several times and keep the brakes on the economy.

Prices in the services sector, which some policymakers have singled out as especially relevant because they reflect domestic demand, rebounded to 4.1% from 3.7%, in reaction to larger-than-expected increases in wages in the first three months of the year.

The ECB’s biggest ever streak of rate hikes has helped bring down inflation, which reached from 10% in late 2022 mainly driven by the surge in energy prices due to the war in Ukraine.

The hikes have stabilized consumer inflation expectations but also choked off credit.

This suggests that policymakers are likely to stick to existing plans to cut rates in the meeting next week, despite growing market doubts about a global narrative of falling inflation.