Oil price rises on fresh optimism but there is still a long way towards more significant recovery
WTI oil advanced around 9% during Wednesday’s Asian / European trading and extended bounce from Tuesday’s $10.05 spike low above $14 per barrel.
API crude stocks data released on Tuesday, showed smaller than expected build in crude inventories during the past week that sparked fresh optimism among traders and lifted oil price.
Markets await release of EIA crude inventories data (10.6 mln bls build f/c vs 15 mln bls build previous week) which would additionally boost oil prices on release below consensus.
Near-term price action remains volatile and entrenched within $10/$18 range in past few days.
Tuesday’s long-tailed Doji candle pointed to strong downside rejection but existing indecision, while today’s rally adds to positive near-term tone.
However, daily studies remain in full bearish setup and would require a lot of work at the upside to sideline persisting downside risk.
Lift above range top ($18.22) is needed to generate initial bullish signal while clear break above $20 zone (former lows / psychological / falling 20DMA) would provide temporary relief.
Extended range trading is likely near-term scenario as oil prices remain under strong pressure on slashed global demand and full storage places, with gradual recovery to be sparked by starting global economy after lockdown and reduced production on the agreement between the biggest oil exporters.
Res: 16.00; 16.87; 18.22; 19.20
Sup: 14.83; 13.64; 12.63; 11.92