Rally on overall good US data cracks key barriers and on trach to complete reversal pattern
The dollar rallies against yen in early hours of American session, boosted by overall positive US data released today.
US NFP surprised on 304K new jobs added in Jan, nearly doubling forecast at 165K, but the sentiment was soured by strong downward revision of Dec figure – 222K from initial 312K release.
Weaker than expected average hourly earnings (Jan 0.1% vs 0.3% f/c) and unemployment rising to 4% from 3.9% Dec / f/c, tempered positive signals from upbeat NFP.
Stronger than expected US Manufacturing PMI data (Jan 56.6 vs 54.2f/c) and Michigan consumer sentiment (Jan 91.2 vs 90.8 f/c) improved near-term picture and gave fresh boost to the greenback.
Reversal signal that is forming on daily chart adds to positive signals, as today’s rally so far retraced 61.8% of 110.00/108.49 pullback and probes above converged daily SMA’s at 109/06/37 zone.
The notion is supported by 14-d momentum which turned north and created bull-cross, as well as slow stochastic, which reversed higher after touching oversold zone boundary.
Friday’s close above 109.41 Fibo barrier (61.8%) would confirm reversal and higher low at 108.49 (Thursday’s low) and re-expose key 110.00 barrier.
Sustained break above 110.00 (recent congestion tops) and 110.19/22 (55WMA / Fibo 61.8% of 113.70/104.59) is needed to signal continuation of larger recovery from 109.59 (03 Jan spike low).
Caution od repeated failure at 110 zone as weekly studies are negative and warn of fresh weakness on repeated recovery stall.
Expect stronger bearish signal on return below 20SMA (109.06).
Res: 109.74; 110.00; 110.19; 111.08
Sup: 109.06; 108.72; 108.49; 107.93