Recovery to likely stall under key barriers
The dollar index keeps traction in early Monday’s trading, following 0.6% bounce on Friday, sparked by better than expected major bank earnings in the first quarter, while negative impact from much stronger than expected fall in US retail sales was partially offset by still resilient core retail sales (excluding fuel, food services, autos and building materials) that kept optimism and expectations for Fed’s rate hike in May.
Friday’s bounce, after the action repeatedly failed to register close below pivotal support at 100.66 (2023 low), generated initial positive signal on formation of bullish engulfing pattern on daily chart, although studies on daily chart are still predominantly bearish and weigh on fresh recovery attempts.
Renewed bulls faced headwinds from initial barrier at 101.45 (falling 10DMA), with break here and above first Fibo resistance at 101.73 (23.6% retracement of 105.85/100.45) needed to reduce downside risk and open way for further recovery.
Still, more work at the upside will be required to generate initial reversal signal (sustained break above Fibo 38.2% barrier at 102.52).
This looks quite unlikely for now, despite improved fundamentals, as the dollar index remains in downtrend and has so far registered 7 straight weekly losses, with pause above key supports at 100.66/00, rather to mark consolidation / limited correction, ahead of fresh push lower than to point to reversal.
Res: 101.45; 101.73; 101.86; 102.46
Sup: 101.00; 100.66; 100.45; 100.00