Sterling can retest post-Brexit vote low on dramatic no-deal Brexit scenario
Cable extends steep fall in early Tuesday’s trading to the lowest level since March 2017, in extension of Monday’s 1.28% fall (the biggest one-day loss since 15 Nov 2018).
The pound collapsed after new PM Boris Johnson said that Britain would leave the EU without deal on 31 Oct if no changes in existing agreement.
Strong bearish sentiment intensified on fears of shock waves that would hit global economy on disorderly Brexit and push the Britain into recession.
The Bank of England meets this week and is likely to add further pressure on pound on anticipated shift towards neutral bias, as the central bank is expected to stay on hold in coming months.
Also, rising market expectations of rate cut by the end of the year, on concerns of no-deal Brexit, signal further pressure on the currency.
Fresh weakness hit low at 1.2119, coming ticks ahead of 14 Mar 2017 low at 1.2108, violation of which would open 1.2085 (16 Jan 2017 low) and risk test of post-Brexit vote low at 1.1930 (7 Oct 2016 low).
Bearish daily / weekly studies support scenario, but oversold RSI / Stochastic warn of corrective action, with upticks expected to provide better selling opportunities.
Initial resistance lay at 1.2200/25 (round-figure / session high), followed by 20-d lower Bollinger band (1.2254).
Res: 1.2200; 1.2225; 1.2254; 1.2300
Sup: 1.2119; 1.2110; 1.2085; 1.2000