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Swiss franc to come under increased pressure if SNB opts for 25 instead of 50 basis points hike

The USDCHF rises for the second day from new 5-week low (0.8901) ahead of the Swiss National Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday.

Over 60% of current market bets for a half percent hike is fading, on rising number of those who expect the central bank to opt for 25 basis points hike.

The fact that inflation in Switzerland has fallen from 3.4% to 2.2% and averaging 2.4% in the second quarter while core inflation, currently at 1.9%, remains within SNB’s target range, eases pressure on the central bank for stronger policy tightening.

Swiss franc could come under increased pressure if the SNB delivers 25 basis points hike this time, as the gap between the monetary policies of the SNB and other major central banks would widen further.

Stronger USDCHF’s rally should be expected in such scenario, with break of 0.90 zone (psychological / Fibo 38.2% of 0.9147/0.8901) to confirm reversal and spark further advance.

Daily moving averages are in full bearish setup but negative momentum is fading and stochastic is oversold.

Res: 0.8986; 0.9000; 0.9024; 0.9053
Sup: 0.8930; 0.8897; 0.8868; 0.8820