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Turkey’s 2018 General election and the possible scenarios

Citizens of Turkey will go to the polls on Sunday 24th of June 2018, for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. The 60 million Turkish citizens who are eligible to vote will elect the future President of the country and will determine the fate of 600 seats in the country’s parliament.

At the moment, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) are leading the parliamentary polls with 55 percent of the votes, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan is leading the presidential polls which makes it likely that a second round will take place two weeks later, on July 8th.

Currently, the Turkish economy is experiencing a sharp decline in the value of the national currency, the Turkish Lira, and this decline has been intensified after a failed coup in June 2016, with the value of the Turkish Lira decreasing by more than 40 percent against the US dollar.

The measures of the Turkish Central Bank to raise interest rates have not been able to slow the downtrend of the value of the Turkish currency and Turkey’s interest rates are at its highest after Argentina, Venezuela and Iran.

There are high expectations that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be re-elected for the Turkish presidency, but if his rivals, in particular, Muharram Ince of the Nation Alliance Party wins, or if the elections proceed with a second round, this could lead to a further decrease in the value of Turkish Lira in the short and mid-term due to the decrease of political stability.

Whether the current government wins or loses, the Lira’s decline is prone to continue however it will gain more traction in the latter scenario.

From a technical point of view, the US dollar also has a strong uptrend to the Turkish Lira, and the psychological round price of 5 Lira per US Dollar could be a resistance level.