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Turkish lira eyes CBRT policy meeting but outlook does not look bright

Turkish lira came under pressure again on Monday, after brief recovery attempts gave little results and were contained by the lower boundary of triangular consolidation under new record high at 7.1074.
The dollar is firmer after solid US jobs data as well as safe-haven buying on fears of escalation of US-China trade conflict.
On the other side, lira remains under strong pressure on turmoil in emerging markets, but weakening Turkish economy and CBRT’s failure to tackle double-digit inflation, was one of the key factors.
Central bank’s policy meeting is due later this week and is the key event. However, markets expect little help for falling lira from the central bank’s action in both cases, whether it opts for expected 425 basis points hike or reacts inadequately.
The damage to lira has been already done and there is a tough work for the central bank to attempt to stabilize falling currency, which would require stronger rate hike.
The outlook for lira remains grim and scenario of further weakness into uncharted territory could be likely scenario.
CBRT’s policy meeting on 13 September is expected to give more clues.

Res: 6.5290; 6.6900; 6.7224; 6.8379
Sup: 6.3747; 6.3000; 6.2582; 6.0204